Gold price at 1900 USD: US futures market could’ve predicted this?

Gold price $ 1,900
Gold prices passed the $ 1,900 mark last week for the first time since 2011. On the spot market (FOREX), the gold ounce started the weekend exactly at $ 1,900. This also corresponded to the futures price for the most traded gold contract on COMEX (August; $ 1,900.30). Compared to the previous week, the price rose by almost 5 percent.

CoT data
If we take a look at the CoT data with the positions of the largest trader groups in the US gold futures business as of July 21, 2020. Here the net short position of the “Commercials” is moderate by 0.61 percent to 303,859 contracts increased. The net sales of swap dealers, including large banks, even fell by 1 percent to 203,601 contracts. On the other hand, the net long position of the “big speculators” rose by 1.53 percent to 266,436 contracts. This was mainly due to “managed money”, whose net purchases rose by almost 4 percent to 140,269 contracts.

Open interest
Open interest, the sum of all open gold contracts on COMEX, also rose by roughly 4 percent to 603,138 contracts. The threshold of 600,000 contracts was exceeded for the first time since March 10, 2020 as part of the weekly CoT data. By the close of trading on Friday, the figure rose by 1.2 percent to 610,362 contracts. However, we have seen far higher values in the past. At the end of February 2020, for example, 732,817 gold futures contracts were in circulation at COMEX – 20 percent more.